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In a stark warning, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has declared that 2024 is "virtually certain" to become the hottest year on record, eclipsing 2023's record-breaking temperatures. This ominous prediction comes ahead of the UN COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, where world leaders will convene to address the escalating climate crisis.
According to C3S data, the average global temperature from January to October has been exceptionally high, ensuring 2024's place in history as the warmest year since records began. Unless the temperature anomaly plummets to near-zero for the remainder of the year, 2024 will solidify its position as the hottest year on record.
"The fundamental, underpinning cause of this year's record is climate change," C3S Director Carlo Buontempo emphasized. "The climate is warming, generally. It's warming in all continents, in all ocean basins. So we are bound to see those records being broken."
This milestone marks a dire turning point, as 2024 will also be the first year the planet's temperature exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The consequences of this increase will be far-reaching, fueling extreme weather events and devastating communities worldwide.
Climate scientists, including Sonia Seneviratne from ETH Zurich, urge governments to take immediate action to reduce carbon emissions and transition away from fossil fuels. "The limits that were set in the Paris Agreement are starting to crumble given the too-slow pace of climate action across the world," Seneviratne warned.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aimed to prevent global warming from surpassing 1.5C. However, C3S now predicts the world will exceed this target by 2030. Every fraction of temperature increase exacerbates extreme weather events, such as:
- Catastrophic flash floods in Spain
- Record wildfires in Peru
- Flooding in Bangladesh, destroying over one million tons of rice
- Hurricane Milton in the US, intensified by human-caused climate change
C3S' records date back to 1940 and are cross-checked with global temperature records from 1850. This comprehensive data underscores the pressing need for collective action to mitigate the climate crisis.
As world leaders gather for COP29, the stakes have never been higher. Will they respond with the urgency and ambition required to address this existential threat, or will 2024 mark the beginning of an irreversible descent into climate catastrophe?
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